Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 4.509333 5.346022 6.273424 7.374592 8.643247 10.055759 11.744114
2025-05-18 3.029084 4.084561 5.388214 7.102892 9.283164 11.945850 15.424544
2025-05-25 2.107424 3.184781 4.647081 6.745233 9.640579 13.451793 18.795345
2025-06-01 1.593457 2.661764 4.235275 6.665941 10.256180 15.280006 22.734259
2025-06-08 1.237794 2.265767 3.895669 6.583453 10.795378 17.005767 26.672148
2025-06-15 1.064665 2.109151 3.872779 6.945216 12.001476 19.782326 32.370029
2025-06-22 0.878373 1.881096 3.681309 6.987392 12.686671 21.815419 37.122701
2025-06-29 0.727414 1.679111 3.490455 6.985944 13.276765 23.730049 41.838857
2025-07-06 0.604789 1.501474 3.306572 6.957554 13.798649 25.560369 46.555866
2025-07-13 0.567829 1.494721 3.445887 7.541066 15.459625 29.437184 54.968838
2025-07-20 0.503958 1.412125 3.416379 7.789137 16.524813 32.368605 61.998508
2025-07-27 0.453109 1.347629 3.411966 8.082089 17.698446 35.580440 69.750272
2025-08-03 0.385119 1.226157 3.267726 8.077743 18.320417 37.898135 76.201107
2025-08-10 0.311474 1.069178 3.012926 7.797818 18.359593 39.144843 80.833888
2025-08-17 0.246416 0.915491 2.733286 7.414224 18.130513 39.848847 84.506658
2025-08-24 0.206760 0.824997 2.592898 7.329730 18.524986 41.798997 90.691494
2025-08-31 0.173624 0.744098 2.460217 7.240614 18.893604 43.720767 96.957222
2025-09-07 0.161771 0.732426 2.516562 7.634234 20.401191 48.102129 108.409139
2025-09-14 0.140634 0.679760 2.443766 7.680166 21.098823 50.833174 116.706496
2025-09-21 0.121291 0.626770 2.358500 7.678618 21.680433 53.358791 124.752965
2025-09-28 0.104112 0.575773 2.268060 7.647763 22.184562 55.751707 132.681883
2025-10-05 0.102884 0.593438 2.404221 8.281911 24.420252 62.147573 149.488404
2025-10-12 0.094275 0.574683 2.414859 8.551364 25.750639 66.598452 162.390065